When it comes to handicapping the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic, One of the most critical aspects to consider is speed figures. Speed figures provide a numerical representation of a horse’s performance, helping bettors and analysts gauge a horse’s ability and predict its chances of success in a race. Let’s delve deeper into the role of these figures in the upcoming Classic.
White Abarrio’s Speed Figures: Peaked in the Whitney?
A significant point of contention in this year’s Classic revolves around White Abarrio’s recent performance. In the Grade 1 Whitney, White Abarrio showcased extraordinary speed figures, boasting a career-high 110 Beyer, an impressive 132 TimeformUS figure, and a strong 116 HRN speed figure. These remarkable numbers make the 4-year-old colt a standout contender in the race. However, a crucial question lingers: did White Abarrio peak in the Whitney, or does he have more room for improvement? This is an important question for speed-figure handicappers to ponder.
Balancing Regression and Progression
While White Abarrio’s Whitney performance was undoubtedly remarkable. The conventional wisdom among horse racing aficionados suggests that regression is more likely in this scenario. White Abarrio was making his 14th career start in the Whitney, indicating a more seasoned horse. On the other hand, several 3-year-olds in the Classic, such as Arcangelo, Arabian Knight, and Geaux Rocket Ride, have made a combined total of just 15 career starts. This youth and limited racing experience give these younger contenders a potential edge in the progression department.
Furthermore, it’s essential to consider that White Abarrio’s victory in the Whitney marked. His first stakes win since the Florida Derby (G1) back in April 2022. If one assumes that White Abarrio may not replicate the lofty figures from his previous race and that other less-seasoned runners will continue to evolve, it adds an intriguing dimension to the Classic, especially from a speed-figure perspective.
Comparing Speed Figures
It’s valuable to note that seven other runners in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field have earned Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 103 to 106 this year. Notably, this list doesn’t include Arabian Knight or Geaux Rocket Ride, two of the top betting choices. TimeformUS, which rated the Pacific Classic (G1). The race that Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride exited, more favorably, presents an alternative perspective. Arabian Knight’s impressive 126 TimeformUS Figure stands as one of the highest in the field.
HRN’s Speed Figures elevate Bright Future as an underrated contender, but TimeformUS doesn’t share the same enthusiasm. Holding Bright Future’s 118 career-high figure in lesser regard. With so many different data points, it’s imperative to consider the information holistically when assessing the contenders.
Speed Figures as Part of the Handicapper’s Toolkit
Speed figures are a vital component of a handicapper’s toolkit, providing valuable insights into a horse’s past performance. However, it’s crucial to remember that while they offer significant data. Speed figures should not be the sole basis for making wagering decisions. They should be used in conjunction with other factors like form, jockey, track conditions, and race strategy to build a comprehensive handicapping strategy.
The Balanced Field and International Contenders
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic features a well-balanced field, with no clear standout horse. In addition to assessing the domestic contenders, it’s worthwhile to consider potential international entrants. Ushba Tesoro, King of Steel, and Derma Sotogake bring an element of mystery due to the unavailability of their speed figures. International entries often introduce a new level of competition and unpredictability, making them intriguing wild cards in the Classic.
H2: Speed Figures for 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders
Here’s a detailed overview of the top Beyer, TimeformUS, and HRN speed figures for the prospective 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic field:
|Geaux Rocket Ride